Two counterfactuals baked into the estimate 1) No BTC/crypt…

Two counterfactuals baked into the estimate
1) No BTC/crypto as an alternative:
- Not every crypto dollar would have gone to gold. A plausible redirect share for the “anti‑fiat/hedge” cohort is maybe 20–40% of crypto’s $4T, i.e., ~$0.8T–$1.6T. The rest would disperse to cash, equities, real estate, silver, and commodities.
- Ballpark impact using the rough sensitivity above:
- $800B at +15–60% per $100B → +120% to +480% on price.
- $1.2T → +180% to +720%.
- Applying that to ~$3,350/oz gives wide ranges, but even the conservative end ($800B at +15% per $100B) suggests ~$7,400/oz; mid scenarios cluster ~$8,000–$15,000; aggressive tails could print higher in spikes before retracing as recycling supply responds.
2) No widespread price suppression:
- Systematic, durable “suppression” via futures is debated and not empirically settled. If we assume fewer paper‑market frictions and more unimpeded price discovery, the effect is most likely to show up as fatter upside tails and faster transmission of net demand into spot rather than a stable premium you can just add.
- Practically, you might layer an extra 10–30% on peak moves or shorten the lag between flows and price—this nudges the midrange toward the upper end and makes spikes more probable.