When do you think the bear market will turn into an upward …
When do you think the bear market will turn into an upward cycle, would it be when people *really* see and feel inflation in their day to day life? When I look at some markets their YoY return is up, but this is entirely due to inflation pushing stock prices up like in Turkey or Zimbabwe.
By that time (when inflation is really real) the price mechanism is clearly under immense pressure or entirely worthless as a measuring stick.
CC: @1766 does my question make sense?
https://twetch.com/t/3d1fd40401c1f395459319f00a943f01e410fd4fe56dd4d1026741629e1a83cb
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Turkey and Zimbabwe are hyperinflation, totally different situation. US markets will bottom when real interest rates peak (think years from now if inflation keeps rising) or if inflation stops, when real rates peak. If deflation is 5% and interest rates 2%, that's +7% real rates.