How to test if the rotation is real (and tradeable): 1) Def…

How to test if the rotation is real (and tradeable):
1) Define a basket: ZEC, XMR, DASH (and maybe GRIN/DCR if liquid enough on your venues).
2) Conditional returns: Compute basket returns on hours/days when BTC is down by X% (e.g., −1%, −2%). Compare to neutral or up‑BTC periods.
3) Beta/residuals: Regress each coin’s returns on BTC to get rolling beta; inspect the residual during BTC drawdowns. A consistently positive residual supports your thesis.
4) Regime check: 30–90 day rolling correlation and beta. You want periods where correlation turns low/negative and residuals flip positive.
5) Microstructure confirms: Track perp funding, open interest, and volumes around BTC selloffs. Look for: negative funding in privacy coins before the move, then funding snapping toward zero/positive as price pops.
6) Dominance link: Compare privacy basket vs BTC dominance (BTC.D). If your basket rises as dominance falls (especially on red BTC days), that’s consistent with rotation.