My take on the "good times create weak men" idea: Success …
My take on the "good times create weak men" idea:
Success breeds arrogance, which breeds incompetence, which breeds corruption, which results in collapse, which refreshes the need for competence, which brings about success.
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Less harsh possibility: success makes finding cause too hard, assumes patterns, replays patterns with less good results but assumes those the outliers not the initial success, repeat until too late.
The degree to which the guess about what caused success is right is the degree to which it generate repeat success, but always with some loss of result and insight wears thinner.
See all maps by successful biz people on how to repeat it.
Political campaign managers often get hired bc they won a big race as underdog, and assumed to be genius. It takes about 10 horrible failures before they stop getting huge pay by big names to run campaigns, bc initial upset grants mythical status.
But there's a version of the story where no malice or complete collapse required, just human lack of knowledge in world of too many variable.
Reality, some malice and corruption nearly always sneaks in, to varying degrees.
I guess I just put nicer words on your pattern.
Though I think I'm harsher than you on the last step. The refreshed need for competence doesn't bring about success often. When it does, it's via absurd amounts of trial/error, but need humility to allow it.