Smells like a bear trap, reminds me of Silk Road.

Twetch ·

Smells like a bear trap, reminds me of Silk Road.

Replies

Twetch ·

No... Don't let yourself think of this in traditional charting frameworks.

This is absolutely caused by global economic shifts, not industry specific shocks.

Twetch ·

This is purely a sentiment read. IMO COVID-19 is completely overblown. Infection rates are magnitudes higher and mild cases are being unnoticed.

Twetch ·

Irrelevant.

Economies run on expectations at least as much as reality.

Add to this the significant real disruptions to the economy and you begin to see how this is the bursting of the bubble that's been built up for ~9 years now.

Twetch ·

As that bubble is exposed and the information gap about COVID-19 closes, I see it as a very bullish sign for Bitcoin. I’m a buyer here.

Twetch ·

Yes... I agree... But what is the time frame?

There are too many variables to actually predict this, especially because many of those variables are impossible to predict.

How long does COVID-19 affect things?
How long to readjust supply chains?

Twetch ·

What happens with the USD and other national currencies?
Do governments engage in fiscal stimulus?
What firms survive the changes?

All of those questions can't be answered without the very information that must be discovered in time.