notes on @johnrobb @jackmurphylive podcast #youtube_notes

!time:02:20 open source intelligence. tapping your network for sense making and intelligence.

!time:03:52 fake news false articles are not a problem because you can post things and have your network verify them. "i dont really thnk as an individual anymore, i let me network think through things... im as good as the quality of my network"

!time:06:28 sanctuary cities. localism. federalism. as we globalize the legitimacy of the nation state diminishes especially as we screw everything up. iraq, afghanistan, financial crash, failure to punish fraud. states and localities have stepped up to wield power. eg. sanctuary cities and 2nd amendment advocates defy feds at state and local level. rhymes with pre-civil war states-rights struggle.

!time:11:27 states rights sanctuary cities vs gun laws. cant really criticize immigration sanctuary cities without criticizing 2nd amendment sanctuaries. at least if you're a principled person.

!time:12:00 decentralization of national power after cold war. without soviet union as an adversary centralization of vast power was no longer justified. transitioning to a more federalist system. this is good because of the complexity of the world.

!time:13:36 complexity of modernity requires trial and error and independent networks experimenting. this is the idea behind the constitution and federalism. complex is different than complicated. complex means you dont know and planning becomes impossible. evolutionary algorithm is required.

!time:16:08 industrial organization. reinventing organizations book. work should be atomized to smaller groups. have to facilitate and expect chaos.

!time:17:26 coronavirus information supression is an example of "not having edge voices" which caused many to die because centralized power suppressed information. in the US things are more chaotic, but our networks are responding in a decentralized manner. 

!time:20:35 financial impact of coronavirus may be economic depression. convention closures, empty flights, indefinite duration of lockdown, 10 to 12 weeks and back for the second wave. lots of retail and service industry job losses. tourism is done. no travel budgets. sxsw canceled.

!time:23:45 2008 vs coronavirus. uncertainty is poison. confidence drives markets and economic behavior. opportunity for trump to reinvent stimulus. we've stimulated in a top down manner by giving money to corops, instead we can stimulate bottom up with universal basic income for two years just. 40 billion per year for 2 years repaid over 30 years. we could have 8 to 10 percent growth.

!time:29:00 quarantine will have devastating economic impact. i dont think we will have a full quarantine. Alternatively have a more decentralized response with local shutdowns. Also devastating to economy. Uncharted territory.

!time:31:47 we're facing deflation not inflation. no one is spending. we're not taking advantage of the situation where we can't find a place to put a trillion dollars that will yield 1%. ubi is superior to infrastructure because less cronyism. trickle up economics. can 300 million americans figure out how to spend money better than corporations? "i think they can".

!time:36:54 coronavirus discussion. we lack testing, we lack icu beds. multiple hotspots. need to flatten the curve so hospitals are not overrun. italy is doing war triage bc of lack of resources.

!time:58:05 china shock doctrine. we offshore basic manufacturing. disrupted iterative process between manufacturing and engineering. will this be the wake up call that comparitive advantage makes us fragile?

!time:59:29 is this the moment where we onshore manufacturing? trump is focused on this due to his experience with his experience in nyc when japanese bought rockefeller center in the 80s. 

!time:1:02:15 reagan forced japanese  to cut auto trade deficit and saved auto industry, never implemented with china. what's uniquely american is pragmatism, neo-liberals were too idealogical, had an obsession with global trade: goods and people. paul krugman said: can't even have the argument bc it would give ammunition to the "barbarians".

!time:1:06:15 small groups can disrupt global systems. doesnt mean you dont have to disconnect, connect on your own terms to have the best of both worlds.

!time:1:08:34 how cyncial should we be about the decision to gain access to chinese markets. complexity strikes: ironically al gore lobbied for chinese wto membership and moved environmentally clean manufacturing to china. nato membership was expanded to prevent genocides and instead initiated hostilities with russia.

!time:1:11:46 globalist trade vs nationalist trade rhymes with open networks vs high engagement private networks. the return of the tribe and leveraging groups. tribal context helps stabilize your life.

!time:1:17:50 initial theory: 4th generation warfare, going back before westphalia. now: break up of the nation state due to technology similar to the decentralization of religion and the cracking of catholic church. social media is a new social decision making apparatus. 3 forces: left, right, establishment. establishment is ossified. the right is a disruptive network. "network left" failed bc network was split b/w sanders and warren.

!time:1:26:53 empty establishment vs network right conduited by trump. russiagate helped trump. network left didnt get it done. network left is morally bankrupt, hate america.

!time:1:31:01 predicting tucker carlson as next presidential candidate. he is prescient on the important issues eg. medical manufacturing. he has formalized the process of the network feeding the candidate. the network left is not doing this except for wokism "america is racist from top to bottom... racism is getting worse". they all fell in line behind deteriorating biden. biden is sacrificial lamb - gearing up for michele obama presidency.