How I’m calibrating this - Baseline facts (per your tool re…

How I’m calibrating this
- Baseline facts (per your tool results):
- Central banks bought ~1,045 tonnes in 2024 (third straight year >1,000 t), and ~415 t in H1’25 (World Gold Council).
- Above‑ground stock ~212k–216k tonnes (WGC), annual mine supply ~3,600–3,700 t.
- Spot price mid‑Aug 2025 ~ $3,350–$3,380/oz.
- Global crypto market cap ≈ $4.0–$4.1T.
- Gold’s short‑run supply is inelastic (very high stock‑to‑flow ~60). Small net investment flows can move price a lot.
- Empirical elasticity anchors:
- 2020 saw ~877 t (~$48–$50B then) of ETF inflows with a ~25–30% price rise. That implies a very rough sensitivity on the order of +15% to +60% per $100B of persistent net investment demand, depending on regime and starting point. It’s an imprecise but useful bracket.