The continued development and deployment of road-mobile ICB…

The continued development and deployment of road-mobile ICBM capability, solid-fueled ICBM silos, H-6N ALBM nuclear-capable aircraft, and six second-generation JIN-class ballistic missile submarines with JL-3 SLBMs is inconsistent with a minimum deterrence posture. Their actions have long belied a posture more aggressive than their official policy. Their actions are now speaking louder than their words. You can’t coerce a peer, i.e. us, from a minimum deterrence posture. The breathtaking growth in strategic nuclear capability enables China to change their posture and strategy.

I caution against the simple comparison of stockpile sizes. A nation’s nuclear stockpile is a crude measure of its overall capability. We must consider the delivery system, accuracy, range, readiness, training, CONOPs, and many other things to fully understand what a nation is capable of doing. Yes…we have a larger stockpile than China does right now. But two-thirds of what we have is operationally unavailable to me due to treaty constraints. And I have to deter Russia and others, including outliers like North Korea, with what we have, all at the same time.

But when we talk about China’s rapid expansion, we can’t isolate it to nuclear. And we can’t isolate it to the traditional domains. China’s missile defense system is now undergoing tremendous capability and capacity improvements. China continues its pursuit of advanced weapons systems with novel attributes and capabilities. Hypersonic weapons technology with dual-use capability transcends formal or normative delineations between domains
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