Anyone? https://twetch.app/t/26438a477dbb011e0b232adeef9f31…
Anyone?
https://twetch.app/t/26438a477dbb011e0b232adeef9f3129801a0a32bef2ba2e939149c36c8d9e7d
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Gilder mentioned how the time-value of gold has never changed. He said that though it requires exponentially more energy to mine it now, compared to during the gold rush, the same amount of gold is "produced" per unit of time. So, in a sense, they agree...
That didn't make sense to me, because of the inherent relationship between time and energy. Simplistically, it takes far less time (and energy) to pick up a sizable gold nugget visible in a mountain stream than it does extracting ore and refining that ore
Guilder wants a fixed price (in terms of his theory of money = time) while Satoshi fixed *cost* within that theoretical framework: the energy required to mine BitCoin increases over time, but the same amount is mined per unit of time (1 block per 10 mins)
I think he's speaking of the total gold brought on to the market per unit of time, not per unit of energy. You are right that it takes less of both to pick up a gold nugget vs. operating a gold mine. He claims the same amount is mined year after year.
But... 1 block of now arbitrary size, which has no relationship to the total supply of indivisible tokens (i.e. satoshis aka abstract and tradeable time). Gilder wants a fixed price for each satoshi, and a variable supply. Suppose 1 satoshi = 1 minute...
I need to read his work as well, because there seems to be a similarity in their approach to the relationship between time and money, though from different angles, which struck me as interesting. Great question and stimulating conversation. Thanks.
Yes, very interesting to me as well and thanks to you, too.
I need to read his work, but that claim simply can't be true. Even if you attribute European inflation after the Spanish brought massive amounts of new world gold to Europe from pre-mined supply, gold rushes in North America also saw disruptive inflation
Agreed.
First, good catch on the golf association...I was looking for his suggestion on what to pin it to, but never put that together, somehow. However, why do you say, “so, in a sense, they agree”? Gilder seemed to prefer unlimited bitcoin pinned to gold, right?
s/golf/gold/
Gilder argued for fixed price and variable supply, not sure he pinned it to gold. The fixed rate of one BitCoin block per 10 minutes is similar to how Gilder asserts the amount of gold produced per unit time, i.e., "time-value" of gold remains constant.
Ahh. Ok. Thank you for that clarification; I'm still trying to wrap my head around his perspective, as I feel like there is something to what he is saying. It's still not clear to me how it would all come together. If clear to you, please elaborate.
Likewise.
I also liked Gilder's association of how time with *everything* because it boils down to frequencies (temperature, speed, etc). He mixed in measurements (meter, kilogram, etc) as well, which I struggled to find the relation (vs km/hr, wifi freq).
Agreed. Waves, all waves, are an expression of motion through some medium over time. Current is flow of energy and is a wave. No coincidence that currency has the same root word.
As for rate of mining blocks vs mining physical gold, there is a key difference that make the comparison inadequate, imo:
* the option to stop mining entirely
Gold mining can stop & transactions can continue with mined gold. Bitcoin mining can't stop.
The relatively consistent annualized rate of gold mining referred to by George must include slowdowns, pauses, etc. And includes zero transaction dependency. "Mining" probably won't be the right word once all 21 million bsv are in circulation. Txns only
Good insight. Depends on your perspective on incentives, namely whether or not they are they causal. If yes, then when gold has value > cost of mining, gold mining will continue. Same with bitcoin, if it has value > cost of mining, people will mine bitcoin
Yes... But with bitcoin if all miners stop, then the coin is dead. I can't imagine mining would commence again if that happened to a coin for some significant amont of time. But who knows.
I get your point and agree that you identified a significant difference, but in practical terms I don't see it as a fatal flaw in the time-value comparison between gold and bitcoin in terms of Gilder's theory. Incentive dynamics are another similarity imho