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5) Inflation and market behavior don’t fit the story cleanly
- Since the 2021–2022 inflation spikes, developed-market inflation moderated while real rates turned positive at times—yet gold’s strength persisted, suggesting dynamics beyond a simple “BTC stole the bid” explanation.
- BTC’s correlation profile often resembles a high-beta risk asset in liquidity cycles, not a straight inflation hedge. That undermines the claim it systematically diverts the inflation-hedge flow that would otherwise drive metals parabolic.